What's going on? What's going to happen?

What's going on? What's going to happen?

Recently a stupid but vociferous ignoramus challenged me to pen an essay similar to and of the "quality" of an anti-VC essay (written in Vietnamese) that he came across on the Net. I put on a sardonic smile after reading his challenge in a forum. I initially didn't wish to dignify his stupid challenge with a reply. He made it sound like he had never read any essays written by me while in fact he had publicly expressed on more than one occasion his admiration for my "hard-hitting" (his words) essays. Now, any fool can open his mouth and pontificate; any barely literate dude can string words of banality together and post them on the Net and feel good about himself that there's a trace of his name in the cyberspace. But to write something meaningful and memorable requires more than a familiarity with words and an acquaintance with the rudiments of grammar. It requires thinking of a high order, respect for facts and logic, and sensitivity to the magic of words.

The following is not really an essay per se. It is a compendium of my observations on "random (and yet tenuously related) present realities" as I see them. They are by no means oracular and words of wisdom; thus, I welcome feedback, dissent, and dialogue.

1. The VC and the fate of Vietnam

Anything (political regime included) that is immoderate, excessive, "immoral", and "unnatural" tends to be unstable and cannot last forever. A political regime that relies on brute force and corruption for governance, and yet shows that it is unwilling to challenge a historical enemy that is bent to take over the country, is doomed to collapse and destined to the dustbin of history. So the task of those Vietnamese who really care about Vietnam---and not just to lust after power and hanker after self-aggrandizement---is not to pontificate ad nauseam how bad the VC leadership is, but to get and work together for a post-VC regime that responds to the needs of the Vietnamese populace, and not just of the political and economic elites.

2. The U.S. and the "neo-involvement" in Vietnam

It is far-fetched to think that it is possible to dislodge the VC and to modernize Vietnam without the help of Pacific powers, principally the U.S. America's willingness to help build a post-VC regime is based on naked geopolitical considerations, and not really on the milk of human kindness. To thwart China's territorial and military ambitions, America needs Vietnam to be out of China's orbit.

3. The end of the American Empire and China's Century?

The last two decades have witnessed a plethora of books and articles on the "inevitable" and "looming" decline of America as a superpower, concomitant with the rise of China and its eventual replacement of America as the number one power on this planet. There have been noises---some of which emanate from China itself---that the 21st century belongs to China, just like America owned the 20th century.

I don't subscribe to the prophecy business. I have scant, if any at all, regard for "prophets" and all the loose talks and "prophecies" about "Judgment Day", "Armageddon", "End of the World", "Second Coming of You Know Who", " Return of the Messiah", "Maya Prophecy of Doom in the Year 2012" , so on and so forth, simply because I strongly think that no organism, humans included, on this planet can accurately predict the future which involves human behaviors. At best, humans can extrapolate the present trends and speculate, not predict, about future events.

While I don't deny that America is in relative decline (due to drop of work and study ethic, overseas competition, wasteful pursuit of unnecessary wars, blind and reflexive support of Israel, implicit and unnecessary quarrel with Islam instigated by Israel and zealous Christian "leaders", etc...), there are signs of light at the end of the tunnel (revival of manufacturing jobs, putting an end to unnecessary and unwinnable wars, addressing deficit problems). In addition, Americans have had a history to rise up and meet challenges (Civil War, civil and racial unrest in the 1960's, financial crisis in 2007). Furthermore, I think the leaders in America would not roll over and play dead and let China steamroll over America. The Obama administration has rightly recognized China is an enemy and has pivoted America back to the Pacific. Military resources are being diverted from elsewhere and directed to the Pacific.

On the flip side, China's leaders in recent years stupidly have overaggressively asserted themselves and thus incurred the distrust and fear of China's neighbors. It is no surprise that these countries have responded enthusiastically to America's current policy of encircling and containing China. The path to domination is not easy street if your neighbors don't like you and are banding together and looking to your number one rival and latent and implicit enemy for protection. On top of that, China's future seems to be far from guaranteed continued rising prosperity and political stability. China's environmental problems are scarcely dealt with. The economy is geared toward exports and not domestic consumption, hence vulnerable to overseas boycotts and world trade dislocations. Corruption and cronyism are institutionalized. Economic elites are shifting financial assets to overseas. Some of them are already ensconced themselves outside of China. The populace are agitating for political freedom and reforms. Throughout China's history, there are forces at work that give rise to political and territorial disunity.

Wissai
January 19, 2013