The year 2015 marks forty years of the end of the Second Indochina War, also known as the Vietnam War, which lasted from 1955 to April 30, 1975. The Communists emerged "victorious". The Americans and their allies evacuated out of Vietnam in disarray and perhaps in ignominy. In the aftermath, upwards to 4 million Vietnamese of all stripes risked their lives to get to the shores of freedom in rickety boats. Hundreds of thousands, if not more, of these so-called boat people fell prey to the despicable Thai pirates and the hazards of the seas.
Dramatic changes have occurred within forty years in Vietnam and elsewhere.
In Vietnam first appeared the "Reeducation" Camps, along with lengthy imprisonment terms for some of the "defeated" army and government personnel of the former South Vietnam; the incursion into Cambodia to protect the Vietnamese immigrants there being slaughtered by the fanatical and stupid Khmer Rouge Maoist regime, resulting in the overthrow of the Khmer Rouge and occupation of Cambodia; the brief but intense border war with the erstwhile "brothers in arms and in ideology", the rapacious Red Chinese; the descent into harsh economic conditions leading to revisions of doctrinaire Communist ideas about how to run an economy
The implosion of the Soviet Union in the late 1980's and early 1990's resulted from years of economic management and military competition with the might of the United States led to the revival of the Sino-Vietnamese relations with considerable, if not magnanimous, concessions on the side of Vietnam with regard to land, sea, and islands disputes. The subsequent opening of Vietnam to outsiders for trade, investments, diplomacy, and travel resulted in a a rise of standard of living for most Vietnamese, and glaring and growing gap between the have and the have-nots. The Americans--- the eager, anxious, and opportunistic capitalists to the core and marrow of their being---got back to Vietnam with the establishment of an embassy in 1995. The increasing and unreasonable bellicosity adopted by China in the last three years, concomitant with her rising economic might, towards her neighbors, from Japan in the east to all the states in the southeast, especially Vietnam and the Philippines, is ringing alarm bells in the regions and prompting the U.S. to drop all the pretense of neutrality.
The U.S. is now holding military exercises with her allies (Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines) and selling weapons to the concerned states in the regions. She is also making crystal clear that she is seeking closer military and economic relationships with Vietnam in order to contain China. Meanwhile China is building up airports, naval installations, and ammunition dumps on some of the expanded islands forcibly taken from Vietnam in sea battles in 1974 and 1988. Is China merely rattling her saber or itching and inching towards a real war with Vietnam, the strategically located and long-coveted land? Will the U.S. and her allies look the other way as they did in 1974, 1979, and 1988 or will they be forced to intervene this time to stop China as the stakes are much higher now and China's ambitions of world dominance, starting with Asia, are now obscenely obvious? One cannot help but think that all the military postures and tough talks from China are not just for show and intimidation alone. The situation is eerily reminiscent of that preceding World War Two. War has the logic and illogic and dynamics of its own. Military leaders are bred to fight. All those weapons are not just sitting there for deterrence. Are Chinese civilian leaders able to turn a deaf ear to the sweet urgings of Chinese military hawks that now it's the best time to strike Vietnam while the U.S. is at her weakest: economically no longer vibrant, militarily stretched thin because of the global "War on Terror", domestically politically divided and internationally no longer trusted, and thus will not be committed in defending Vietnam? As for Vietnam, everybody knows the situation is painfully pathetic: there's no social cohesiveness, everyone is out for himself; a severe breakdown of morals and education; rampant and run-away and institutionalized corruption at all levels of governance; and militarily a walk in the park for China's People's "Liberation" Army.
So in terms of probability, a Sino-Vietnamese War is within the realm of definite possibility. All the talks and "disclosures" that in 1999, the leaders of the VC agreed that in 2020, Vietnam will be on her way to be part of the Greater Han "Family" are just a trial balloon to test the reactions of the Vietnamese populace. Just judging the intense patriotism (rampant rioting and looting of Chinese-owned factories and plants) shown by the Vietnamese in 2014 when China deployed a drilling oil rig within Vietnam's exclusive economic zone, it is safe to say that the Vietnamese people will not acquiesce to be part of the Greater Han Family. It's also safe to say whoever in the upper echelons of the VC hierarchy would agree that Vietnam is part of China would commit a grave political (and more) folly.
The war would test the viability and durability of the VC apparatus of governance. The VC leaders do not want war as it would threaten their hold on the country, but war might come, regardless. Will they be able to galvanize and receive the support of the Vietnamese populace against the Chinese, the eternal enemy? Or will the VC apparatus of power break down under the stresses and strains of fighting an intense modern war? At any rate, to survive, the VC must seek and receive the U.S. help.
Based on the postures and pronouncements on the part of the U.S. regarding China's ambitions in the Southeast Asia Sea, the U.S. will come to the aid of Vietnam, and along with that, a change in governing philosophy, at least along the lines of Myanmar, that is, a release of political prisoners, an observance of plural party structures, and a modicum of human rights.
The current intense, if not vitriolic, discourse on Vietnamese politics in Viet-language forums on the Internet reflects the jockeying for the hearts and minds of the Vietnamese populace who are very active on the Net and rely on it for information, especially about political matters. Even if war with China does not occur, it is expected that the political scenes in Vietnam will undergo a metamorphosis now that the Colossus Yankee has decided to be a counterweight, if not a replacement, of China's influence in Vietnam.
Along with the changes in the political scenes, there will be a return of some former exiles to the land of their birth and a growing embrace of Vietnam by the well-educated children and grandchildren of the these exiles and expatriates as the land where they can invest their intellectual and artistic talents to make it a better place for all Vietnamese
That is how I envision and that's what I hope will happen to the land of my birth, the land bearing the shape of the letter S where l learned the language, absorbed the culture, and developed an indelible love. I hope by then I no longer feel that I am an exile in my adopted country, the great and beautiful United States of America, and that I can freely go back to Vietnam any time I want to, without fear, without sorrow, but with plenty of pride.
Wissai
February 26, 2015
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